Johannesburg – Load shedding may soon be a thing of the past, as Eskom forecasts a summer with little to no power cuts. During a media conference at Megawatt Park, Eskom CEO Dan Marokane expressed optimism that the recent trend of no load shedding, which lasted 152 days through winter, is likely to extend into the summer months.
“On the back of a structural shift in performance [of our generating fleet], we have reduced the base assumption for unplanned outages [for the summer],” Marokane stated. The base case for unplanned load losses has been reduced to 13GW of capacity, a significant improvement from the previous 14GW to 15GW assumptions.
Marokane emphasized that as long as unplanned losses remain below 13GW, South Africans can expect a load-shedding-free summer. “In the worst case, if there is 15.5GW of unplanned losses, we will at most experience stage 2,” he added.
The CEO noted that Eskom’s power station managers are acutely aware of the need to maintain unplanned load losses below the 13GW threshold to ensure the continuation of the no-load-shedding streak. “We should have a comfortable summer,” Marokane predicted.
Adding to the positive outlook, Eskom anticipates bringing additional capacity online in the coming months. One unit at Medupi and two units at Kusile power stations are expected to contribute 2.5GW of additional generating capacity, further decreasing the likelihood of load shedding.
Looking ahead, Marokane hinted that the country might soon reach a significant milestone. “This should get us into a conversation that by March we can indicate from our perspective that load shedding at a chronic level, as it was, is behind us,” he said.
However, Marokane also urged caution, noting that summer heat and rain could still pose challenges to Eskom’s power generation units, potentially leading to “at most stage-2 power cuts” if unplanned losses spike. Despite these potential risks, the overall outlook remains positive as Eskom works toward a more stable and reliable power supply for South Africa.
