Eskom’s Improved Performance
Eskom’s latest system status report, issued by its National Transmission Company South Africa division, highlights a sustained improvement in the utility’s generation reliability. The energy availability factor (EAF), which measures the ratio of available energy generation relative to the maximum potential over a specific period, hit 65.89% in the first week of July. This improvement continued into the following week, with a 65.62% EAF.
Eskom’s coal-fired generating fleet has shown consistent performance improvements over 2022. While many experts believed Eskom could stabilize its fleet’s performance, the extent of this year’s improvement has been both surprising and welcome.
“This ongoing stability is a testament to the dedicated efforts of Eskom’s 40,000 employees in implementing the Generation Recovery Plan, as well as carrying out extensive planned maintenance,” stated the power utility. The Generation Recovery Plan, initiated in March 2023, has significantly enhanced the reliability, efficiency, and availability of Eskom’s coal generation fleet, benefiting South Africa.
Milestones and Financial Savings
The last time South Africa experienced such an extended break from load-shedding was nearly four years ago, between September 8 and December 11, 2020. The next milestone of 117 days without load-shedding was last achieved between March 15 and July 10, 2020.
In addition to improved power station performance and suspended scheduled power cuts, Eskom’s recovery plan has also significantly reduced its diesel expenditure. From April 1 to July 11, 2024, Eskom spent approximately R7.65 billion less on diesel for its open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) peaking power stations compared to the same period last year.
Impact of Private Solar Investments
Eskom’s recovery efforts have been bolstered by substantial private investments in rooftop solar self-generation. The latest system status report recorded a 4% increase in estimated rooftop solar capacity between May and June, growing from 5,565.30MW to 5,790.5MW. This increased capacity has reduced demand on Eskom’s grid, enabling the utility to replenish emergency generation reserves expended during evening peaks while the sun is shining.
A Cautious Outlook
Despite the miraculous turnaround, Eskom CEO Dan Marokane cautions that South Africa is not entirely out of the woods. Speaking to Newzroom Afrika, Marokane emphasized the slight possibility of load-shedding this winter, reiterating Eskom’s forecast from April, which predicted up to stage 2 load-shedding during the winter months.
Marokane stressed the importance of keeping unplanned outages below 14,000 MW to minimize load-shedding’s intensity and frequency. If unplanned outages rise to 15,000 MW, the winter load-shedding forecast would materialize, plunging the country back into power cuts. However, Marokane remains optimistic, noting that Eskom has averaged only 12,000 MW of unplanned outages in recent weeks.
“This is what has helped us to stay out of load-shedding, and we have done this without spending in excess of our planned diesel budgets,” Marokane said.
Government Perspective
President Cyril Ramaphosa recently acknowledged the milestone of 100 days without load-shedding but warned against complacency. “Our electricity system remains vulnerable, and we cannot yet rule out the possibility of further load-shedding,” the president said. “Rather, this milestone provides encouragement for us to do more and to work faster to ensure a secure supply of electricity now and into the future.”
The Role of Reduced Mining Production
Former deputy governor of the Reserve Bank, Kuben Naidoo, highlighted that the reduction in electricity demand, which helped Eskom suspend load-shedding, is unlikely to be sustained indefinitely. He pointed out that South Africa’s mining sector, the country’s largest electricity consumer, has seen declining output over the past two years, substantially reducing its energy demand.
Lower commodity demand, elevated operating costs, and logistical bottlenecks have capped the mining sector’s growth, unintentionally aiding Eskom in avoiding load-shedding. “My personal view is that half of the reason we don’t have load-shedding is because the mining sector is in a deep recession,” Naidoo said. “If you switch on the mining sector, I think load-shedding will return, so we still need to continue investing in renewable energy and other energy sources to break that constraint.”
Eskom’s remarkable performance and the significant role of private investments in solar power have provided much-needed relief from load-shedding. However, the situation remains delicate, and ongoing efforts are crucial to maintaining and furthering these gains.
